Day 179: Hopping on the Uranium Bandwagon

I’m betting on Uranium!

Uranium stocks have been tanking, tanking and tanking. Uranium spot price is at a 13 year low.  Analysts, investors, and pundits speculated that a recovery is coming in 2013, 2014,2015,2016…  Now 2017 is just around the corner!

This is crazy.  What is happening?  Is this commodify no longer needed?

Since the Japan earthquake in 2011, Uranium spot price have dropped from $55.25/lb to ~$18.00/lb. A ~66% drop!  (FYI, uranium is used as fuel for nuclear reactors.)

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Sourced from Cameo Uranium Price

I’ve been closely watching Uranium for the past 2 3 months, and this continuous drop is unsustainable.  Uranium producers/miners absolutely CANNOT be profitable under the current circumstances. Uranium companies lose money every time they sell uranium at spot price.

My thoughts

You can’t lose forever. Commodity prices are cyclical based on supply/demand/speculation of supply/demand.   Even the Cubs ended their a 108-year World Series championship drought.

But no one really has the crystal ball.  I, like many others, am just speculating.  However, the upside of speculating can be quite rewarding.

Just an Example: Energy Fuels (TSX:EFR)

Right before the last uranium bull market, EFR was trading at $4.50 CAD/share (post reverse split) at the end of 2005. At the peak, EFR traded at $200 CAD/share.   And looking at EFR price now, it’s only trading at $2.24 CAD/share.  Imagine the upside if the long anticipated uranium bull finally returns. I can certainly put money in safe stocks right now and get a 4% annual gain, but looking at how bearish the uranium  market is right now really really makes me greedy.

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Energy Fuels historic stock price

I have a list of counter arguments below.  I will put my thoughts on the counter arguments in my next post.

Counter Arguments for why the Uranium Bull is not around the corner.

  1. The developed world is reducing the number of nuclear reactors globally and the anticipated growth in China and India might not be met
  2. Alternative energy sources like natural gas is really cheap right now and can operate cheaper than nuclear power.
  3. Nuclear Power is a controversial topic.  Not everyone approves of nuclear power. NIMBY
  4. Japan is taking way too long to restart their reactors
  5. Thorium will replace Uranium
  6. Renewable energy is the future, not nuclear.

That’s all for now.  I’ve only given a very high level overview on why I’m investing in uranium.  There are MANY more reasons to justify my decision.  I will be writing a post on the catalysts which will trigger the next major uranium rally shortly.

Best of luck all!

DISCLOSURE:  I am long EFR. This is not an investment advice.

 

Day 137: Re-evaluating Investment Strategy

Starting this month, I’m going to track my expense and monthly passive income on a separate page and go from there.

Instead of writing a blog post to track how much I saved, I’d rather write my investment strategy and go from there.  It’s great that I’ve saved money, but I don’t need to preach it on my blog.

Getting to the topic,  after months of reading, and trying to figure out what kind of investor I am, I can tell you a majority of my investments are energy companies.

Aside from some Brexit investment on HSBC and miscellaneous  franchises in Canada,  I’ve been putting my capital in Oil and Gas sector.

  • Royal Dutch
  • BP
  • Energy Transfer Partners
  • Enbridge Energy Partners
  • Gaslog Partners
  • Golar Partners

The oil crash in 2014 have caused these companies to be trashed. I was hesitant to invest in any of these companies, but have slowly picked up.  I will continue to put more money in these companies and as oil prices recover (which I think will happen), I will ease my investment on these companies.  I have already slowed down on investing because I found another sector which likely will get me the home run I need.

Go Big or Go to Work!

I’ll end my blog early here.

 

Day 103: 8/16 Spendings Report

Did pretty OK!

This month wasn’t too bad.  I didn’t travel much, I didn’t spend much. Cooking really saved me a boat load.

And guess what, I finally canceled the biggest distraction during my weeknights– Netflix. I always felt it was a waste of time watching Netflix after work.  I could be so much more productive working on my art business, writing my blog and exercising.

But I did replace Netflix with Amazon Prime, so I didn’t actually save that much money though I would argue Amazon prime is a better deal because it offers Prime shipping, discounts AND video.  In my opinion, Amazon video’s selection is not good as Netflix but I can live with that.  I really missed Netflix Original Series, I liked many of the shows like Limitless, Arrow,  and Flash.   At least now I can be more productive.

Spendings 8/16
Grocery 251.04
Household items 0
Gas 34
Dine Out 174.73
Medical Expense 0
Recreation 0
Other Expense 375
Gift 0
Clothing 0
Travel 268.95
Internet 51
TV 99
Auto 0
Total Expense 1253.72

 

Balance and Discovery

In this blog, I’m not going to teach anyone to be stingy, cheap, or even frugal.  I want to people the understand the balance needed for happiness.  Spending more money can actually make you unhappy. On the other end of the spectrum, spending too little can make you unhappy as well.  Balance and self discovery!  I realize despite being exhausted after a day of work, cooking makes me relaxed.  I feel I have total control what I want to eat. That satisfaction brings me happiness.  The savings is a  plus. Buying ‘stuff’ really doesn’t make me happy either.  Removing junk from my home makes me happy.  The earnings from any sale is a plus.

Healthy routines

Sometimes, take a break from whatever you’re doing, and relax on your sofa to think about what makes you satisfied (keep it clean here).  Will this wipe out your savings?  Will this increase your savings?  Would you do it even if you are exhausted?

Let’s make a point system for this

  • Satisfaction (+1 point)
  • No Satisfaction (-1 point)
  • Decreases Savings (-1 point)
  • Increases Savings (+1 point)
  • Good for Health (+1 point)
  • Bad for Health (-1 point)

The best activity to engage in will get you 3 points, and the worst, -3 points.  I think most of the time, we engage in 0 point or 1 point activities.

Example of  a 3 point activity

  • starting a profitable and scalable business (you’re satisfied, you’re making money, and you move around more often than in your cubicle jail, so I’d say it’s good for your health)

Example  of 2 points activity

  • hiking (it’s good for your healthy, and you’re satisfied)

Example of 1 points activity

  • taking yoga classes (you’re satisfied, it’s good for your health, but you gotta pay for your class)

Example of 0 points activity

  • shopping ( you spend money,but you’re satisfied with what you’ve bought)

 

How many points do you earn a day?

 

 

 

 

 

Day 104: 8/16 Passive Income Report

This month was pretty good in terms of dividend income. Of course, not every month is going to be like this.

August 2016: 2265.57

Lending Club 18.53
Prosper $62.89
Dividend Income $2,184.15

 

After reading many bloggers on how they invest, I’ve decided invest mainly on bearish sectors.  Whenever a sector becomes bearish I will use dollar-cost averaging technique to invest in that sector until I believe that sector is no longer bearish.  However, this doesn’t mean I’m going to blindly invest in bearish sectors. It’s Research + Gut Feeling.

Research + Gut Feeling

Gut Feeling = Knowledge + Experience + Analytical Skill

I’ve always had a thing with gut feeling.  It’s like a driving force telling me to do something.  Maybe gut feeling is just a combination of knowledge, past experience, and analytical skills.  This combination triggers an strong indication that you should be doing something.  Over time, with practice, your gut feeling will steer you towards to the proper decision. But all that is bullshit without research.  BE SURE to do your research.  You may be smart, but if you didn’t study for the test, you will NOT do well.  Perhaps, my engineering career  have really developed my gut feeling; everyday involves investigating, researching, problem solving, and learning.  My day to day work have made me a master with using computers (not programming, just getting things done.)

I think in general, the US Market is pretty bullish so I’m having a hard time looking for good deals,but that’s fine, patience is critical to investing.    Also, I suggest spending time reading through other FI blogs.  They will most likely share some good ideas.  I don’t agree with everything but hey, that’s how I found out about KickFurther

Like last passive income update, I still believe there is room for growth in the energy sector, particularly oil and gas.  Despite the drive for clean energy,  oil and gas isn’t going anywhere for the next decade at least. There are several reasons why I think oil and gas aren’t going anywhere. I’ll write up a post on that later.

Joint Investment

I’ve also started a joint investment account with my significant other this month.  To prevent her from freaking out in my aggressive investments, I promised her I will keep the risk to moderate.  After reading from other bloggers, and doing some search, I’ve decided to stick with small cap sustainable businesses and well known brands.

Recent Investments for joint investment

  • Flower Foods

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 87: My 14 day Steak Dry Aging experience

Silicon Valley, being the tech hub of America, has an abundance of good restaurants. Steak house, sushi, Korean, Chinese, you name it.

Notice I only use the word ‘good’. Not great, not excellent, not superb.

Let’s talk about steakhouses. The problem is not with their food quality but with their price. The food quality does not meet its value. To compensate for the high prices, steakhouses enhances their service and decor. But I don’t think that’s actually enough. In 2014, I celebrated my significant other’s birthday at a well known restaurant in Silicon Valley and we each ordered the Omakase. I also ordered a beer.  The bill came to $500 that night.  Because I was a big spender back then, I didn’t care.

It was a 8 course meal, excellent service, but was it worth it? Well it depends. If you can cook,  and have time then nope, not worth it. If you can’t cook, have money and don’t have time , then of course it’s worth it. In the Valley, time is money. People value opportunity cost. If these people didn’t spend the time working or responding to their bosses’ emails, there won’t be RSUs or stock option! Cooking is absolutely a waste of time. If they can’t get the cash from stocks, how are they going to pay for daycare, food delivery, grocery delivery and the latest and greatest –‘kid delivery’, a new service that allows you schedule rides to pick up and drop off your kid.

Ok enough rambling,  here comes the meat of the topic.  I’ve been attempting to age steak at home and have been successful thus far.  The steak is top quality USDA Prime steak. You usually find these steak at high end restaurants. I bought two USDA Prime tri tip  steak from Costco for $40. I believe it was $8.99/lb.

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Day 0: First Day of Dry Aging Tri tip

 

Preparation Procedure

  1. rinse tritip
  2. pad tri tip dry with paper towel
  3. wrapped the steak with paper towel,
  4. put the steak on a metal steaming rack, and place the rack on a plate
  5. add some sea salt on the plate (under the steaming rack)
  6. throw the steak  in the fridge with the rack.

Approximate time: 20 minutes.

Every other day, I replaced the paper towel and shined UV light on the both sides to remove mold and bacteria.

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Day 14: Look at my trimmed dry aged tritip!

 

Outcome

Win.  The steak was FANTASTIC. Also, purchasing an iron skillet to cook the steak was a great investment.

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Nom. Tender, juicy, and full of flavors.

 

Future Plans

I actually still have another tri tip in my fridge and I plan to age it for another week, making it a 21 day Dry Aged Steak. I can’t wait.

 

Day 78 :Early retiree are lazy f*cks

Lazy fucks, get a job and climb that fucken corporate ladder.  Those of you who disagree should be fired right now.  It’s up or out.

That was me a year ago.  I was the study hard, work hard, climb the corporate ladder, buy a house and retire at 65 kind of guy.   I judged ANYONE who wanted to retire early. They were simply LAZY. Who didn’t want to work for the man for 30 years?  It was simply absurd.  Fun comes LATER –when you retire at 65.  Work should keep you excited every day of your life until the end.

A year ago, my relationship with my significant other went from good to god awful because I came home at 10 pm every night and responded to emails day and night.  My health was deteriorating because I was stressed every fucken day over silly issues. My family even told me I was balding (and no I was not)

A few months ago, I finally realized, who the hell cares. I was useless the minute I stopped working so hard, and caring so much.  No one will pity me if I lost my health or my loved ones leave me. For those of you who are the me a year ago, please stop and think about your life.  Are there things you want to do but because it was considered a taboo in society, you forbid yourself from even taking the first step?

There were hints a year ago that I should take the FI path.  Two years ago, one of my friend decide to give up his 6 figure job and just take a year off to travel the world.  At that time, I was thinking– “this guy is NUTS.  This is a career suicide.  What kind of dumb fuck would do such a thing.  They are definitely going to regret this.”

2 years later, my friend is still enjoying life with his wife, and recently, their first child is born.  He is still in the semi retired state. Does he plan to go back to work? Probably.  Does he plan to climb the corporate ladder? hell no!

Around the same time a co-worker shared with me his investment life, and shared some of his audio books with me.  I’ll talk about this story another time.

Were you a company man at one point?  Did you care about the corporate ladder too much at one point?

Day 68: 7/16 Passive Income Report

It’s been two months since I’ve started my FI journey and things turned out alright.   I’ve finally learned to let go and rebalance my huge portfolio in tech stocks.

I’ve sold more than 50% of my tech stocks since February, and invested them in different bearish sectors.

  1.  Oil and Energy  (BP, Royal Dutch, Energy MLPs)
  2. Banks in UK (HSBC)
  3. Canadian Franchises and Energy businesses.(Boston Pizza, The Keg, SIR Royalty, Veresen )

I have been VERY aggressive in my investments, and putting down money at where people are most concerned.  My regret thus far though is not doing that in early February.

July 2016: $778.93

Lending Club $15.40
Prosper $62.80
Dividend Income $700.73

I also have income from KickFurther, but currently their system is not completely refined, so I can’t just click for a monthly statement.  But I believe my net profit from KickFurther is around $60, making my total net passive income $838.93.  This isn’t bad for my second month but I’m still a long way from FI.  Gotta keep pushing.

To achieve FI, I must have a short term plan, and a long term plan.  The short term plan is simple, understand the market, unravel the opportunities currently out in the market and invest in those opportunities.  The long term plan is even simpler: convert investments into safe reliable income streams so it can sustain my  post FI life.  Now, I need to focus on my short term plan.

S&P 500 now at/close to all time high, I don’t want to put money there.  The weak Oil/Energy sector exposed an opportunity for me so I’m going to jump in.  The UK banks are also experiencing troubles, I’m going to jump in as well.

When these companies recover from their current troubles, I will decide what to do then.  Perhaps, more opportunities will be available then and I  will sell my shares, and jump into those opportunities. I AM timing the market, and I AM speculating, but we all time the market, and speculate at one point.  Besides, the yield and potential are quite attractive.

BP, HSBC and Royal Dutch all offered 8% dividend return. I couldn’t resist the yield nor the upside. Now I’m jumping into Energy MLPs. This is another dangerous investment in the Energy sector, but once again, I believe this is another opportunity for me.

Next Step is to focus on my short term plan and seek opportunities.